Burbank Real Estate Blog

Monday 17

Empire State Manufacturing Survey-Consensus 21.5 monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State.

Treasury Int’l Capital-measures foreign demand for our debt and assets by tracking flows of financial instruments into and out of the U.S.

Current Account 

Housing Market Index-Produced by the National Association of Home Builders. This is a survey which is filled out by the members of this organization and it gives their opinion of the general state of the housing market and the economy.

3 Month & 6 Month Bill Auction

4 Week Bill Announcement

Tuesday 18

Housing Starts Consensus 1.180M Starts rose 3% in October after a downward revision of September starts to -11.4%.

State Street Investor Confidence Index Measures actual levels of risk in investor portfolio.

ICSC-USB Store Sales Tracks comparable weekly sales from major retail chains and represents 10% of total retail sales. Is considered to be one of the most timely indicators of consumer spending.

Redbook a timely indicator of consumer spending and also represents about 10% of total retail sales. This measure tracks weekly sales from discounters, chain and department stores.

4 Week bill Auction

Wednesday 19

MBA Purchase Applications measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is considered a leading indicator for single family home sales and housing construction.

EIA Petroleum Status Report reports on crude oil inventories in the U.S.

Thursday 20

GDP-The broadest measure of economic activity that takes all sectors of the economy into account. More in depth expanation.

Corporate Profits

Leading Indicators-Consensus -.3% -Report looks at ten different sources that are supposed to indicate overall economic activity. This figure tends to be revised after the fact and does not do a great job of predicting downturns or upturns.

Jobless Claims Unemployment claims. Consensus 335k

Philidelphia Fed Survey- Consensus 6.2…the lower the number indicates a slower growth rate for manufacturing, just to give you a benchmark it was at 10.9 in September.

EIA Natural Gas Report-Tracks natural gas inventories.

Money Supply

3 and 6 month Treasury Bill Announcement Investors use this data to attempt to predict future Federal Reserve policy.

Friday 21

Personal Income Outlays-Consumer spending Consensus is .4% Another measure to gauge consumer spending power.

Consumer Sentiment Consensus 74.5 The University of Michigan conducts a monthly survey of 500 households about their financial condition and opinions about the economy.

This week the focus will be on the Treasury data on foreign investments in the U.S.  Housing Market Index  and the Housing Starts will be out on Monday and Tuesday of this week and are considered a gauge of economic activity and momentum.

Have a great week!

We had some considerably volatile days this week……what it really boils down to is whether the Fed will be more concerned about the credit meltdown and the housing market versus inflationary pressures on the economy and the dollar’s weakness.  Several analysts came out and predicted that we will be in a recession next year.  Just how bad it will be will depend on your particular area’s local economy.

Items of note:

• The Fed lowered rates by a very unwelcome .25 basis points. The Fed termed it’s outlook for the future as “balanced” , the market however was looking for a more decisive 50 basis point cut for the discount rate which is the rate that directly impacts the banks’ profitability.   Later in the week the Fed did announce that it was negotiating credit swaps with Bank of England in order to help stem the credit crunch.  The Fed intends to lend at least $40 billion to cash strapped banks.
• Retail Sales rose by an unexpected 1.2%, the fact that Thanksgiving was a week early this year contributed but what’s really interesting is that 25% of the increase was attributed to gains in sales for gasoline stations.
• PPI came in above expectiations with an increase of 3.2%…….yes folks that was a one month increase, not an annual increase.  This represents the biggest increase in 34 years!  We have energy prices behind this increase, which should not come as a big surprise.
• CPI came in at a higher than expected .8%.
• Pending Home sales rose slightly in October, but keep in mind this has not been the most reliable indicator as potential or pending sales can fall out of escrow.
• Freddie and Fannie Mae announce fee increases for future mortgages, while intended to bolster the bottom line, some anticipate that this could add as much as $2000 to some loans.
• MBIA got a $1 billion dollar capital infusion or bailout, depending on how you look at it. 
• Washington Mutual announced more losses and layoffs and that they are shutting down their subprime division.
• UBS wrote down another $10 billion in subprime debt.
• Bonds-The 2 year closed at 3.10%, 5 year at 3.5% and the 10 year at 4.1%. These yields are all roughly 30 basis points higher than the lows recorded earlier in the week.

Have a great weekend!

• The council unanimously approved to hire American Homeland Solutions in order to review the Burbank Police Department’s organizational structure and make recommendations.  The review is expected to take 6 months and is part of an ongoing review process that occurs every 5 years.
• The Joslyn Adult Center was renamed for Mary Brady, a volunteer who donated her time and activism to the center for 24 years.
• The council unanimously approved the seismic retrofitting of the Police Pistol Range, Starlight Amphitheater and Fire Station 16.  The cost of the repairs is slightly over $1 million dollars and will comply with state mandates.

Items of note for this week’s City Council meeting:

• Report on the city’s financial status.
• Continuation of Energy Efficient Programs-In addition to continuing the Business Bucks program the city is considering distributing energy efficient light bulbs to all city addresses.
• Acceptance of $3,336 from US Department of Justice-For the purchase of bullet proof vests.

The Burbank City Council meets at City Council Chambers in City Hall, 275 E. Olive Ave. Tuesday at 6:00pm.

Don’t forget that you can watch the City Council meetings live on Charter Communications Channel 6 or online at City of Burbank’s website.

After quiet days on Monday and Tuesday, the Dow soared ahead on Wednesday and Thursday, stalled on Friday.  The overall weak trend in the data reported works in favor of a rate cut next week.  It should be noted however that the stronger numbers in the payroll report could prove troublesome in the Fed’s decision making process.

Items of note:

• President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson unveiled details of the “Hope Now” plan to “rescue” ARM borrowers……essentially it targets roughly 1.2 million borrowers and has been labeled as too little too late.  For more details, here are some good articles…Bloomberg, LA Times, New York Times.
• Under the heading of “Are you kidding me?” State of Florida short term fund for cities and counties has suffered huge losses due to investments in SIV’s(structured investment vehicles) and had to be closed due to the amount of withdrawals.  Additionally about $1 billion dollars of their retirement fund was invested in these vehicles.
• Under the heading of “Are you kidding me?, part 2″Orange County California announced that they had $460 million dollars of SIV investments currently on the downgrade list.
• Bonds-The 2 year closed at 3.10%, 5 year at 3.5% and the 10 year at 4.1%.  These yields are all roughly 30 basis points higher than the lows recorded earlier in the week.

All eyes are on the Fed next week with an anticipated 25 basis point cut to the fed funds rate.  There have been rumors of a 50 basis point cut but I’m not sure the data this week will fully support a move of that size.  One argument for it is to cut deep and quick in order to help out the banks and lenders with the mortgage mess.  Another scenario that may play out is that the Fed lowers the fed funds rate by 25 basis points and the discount rate by 50 basis points.

The reason for a split decision is simple….a lower fed funds rate would aid the consumer directly in that it would affect the interest paid on credit cards but it could entice the consumer to apply for more credit.  Lowering the discount rate helps banks as this is the rate they pay to borrow funds.  Whether that saving will be passed on to the consumer is another matter. A more likely scenario is that it will go towards the bank's bottom line.

Have a great weekend!

Every year the Burbank Civic Pride Committee invites all Burbank residents and businesses to enter the Holiday Outdoor Decorating Contest.

This year marks the 25th Anniversary of the event!!!

Only locations which have submitted entries will be judged. This year the categories are residential, commercial, and youth (age 16 and under).

Entry forms were sent out in all City utility bills during November, additionally they are also available at all City libraries and at City Hall in the City Clerk’s office and the Public Information Office.  You can also access an entry form here. 

Deadline for entries is 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, December 11. The Civic Pride Committee will do the judging on Thursday, December 13.  For further information, contact the City of Burbank Public Information Office at 238-5840

.

Ever wonder if there is an easy way to know what’s going on in your neighborhood with respect to proposed projects?

The Burbank Planning Department has now made it much easier for you to see what is going in your neighborhood!  Proposed and current projects are available via the Planning Projects Map!

With a simple click you can see what’s going on, not only in your area, but throughout the City of Burbank.  The benefits are many as it allows you and other residents to weigh in on proposed projects.

Once you click on a specific project it will bring up the project information, click on that link and it will take you to the alphabetized list for all projects.  I clicked on one of the projects to give you an example of what you will see:

1322 CLYBOURN AVE

Project No. 070008044
Description: Minor Fence exeption for 5′5″ fence in front setback
Project Planner: Jesse Brown
Application Date: 10/18/2007
Application Status: In Process

Hope you found this information useful!

Monday 5

ISM Non Manufacturing Survey Consensus 54 This survey consists of almost 400 firms across 60 different sectors. Analysts like to keep an eye on the business activity index of this survey as it gives an indication of economic health.

3 & 6 Month Bill Auction

Tuesday  4

ICSC-USB Store Sales Tracks comparable weekly sales from major retail chains and represents 10% of total retail sales. Is considered to be one of the most timely indicators of consumer spending.

Redbook a timely indicator of consumer spending and also represents about 10% of total retail sales. This measure tracks weekly sales from discounters, chain and department stores.

Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Announcement

4 Week Bill Auction

Wednesday 5

Pending Homes Sales Index-Release from NAR Gauges demand and momentum of housing market

MBA Purchase Applications-Measures Mortgage Lender applications, this is considered a leading indicator of single family home sales!

ADP Employment Report-National Employment report based on private payrolls

Challenger Job Cut Report Announced corporate layoffs.

Productivity and Costs This report looks at the growth or lack thereof in the efficiency of our labor force relative to the production of goods and services.

Factory Orders Consensus 0.0

ISM Non Manufacturing Survey Consensus 54.8

EIA Petroleum Status Report-Measures petroleum inventories in the US

Thursday 6

Monster Employment Index Job availability compiled by Monsters from 1500+ websites.

BOE Announcement- Bank of England Monetary Policy

ECB Announcement- Interest Rate policy issued by European Central Bank

Jobless Claims Unemployment claims.  Consensus 335k

EIA Natural Gas Report

Chain Store Sales Another indicator of consumer spending trends.

3 and 6 month Treasury Bill Announcement Investors use this data to attempt to predict future Federal Reserve policy.

Treasury Strips

Money Supply

Friday 7

Consumer Sentiment  The University of Michigan conducts a monthly survey of 500 households about their financial condition and opinions about the economy. Consensus 76

Employment Situation-Set of labor market indicators

Consumer Credit
This report represents the overall value of outstanding consumer credit debt. Very simply put, if demand exceeds supply, interest rates rise. Consensus $9.0B

RBC Cash Index Monthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the state of the economy. Consumer spending accounts for two thirds of the economy, so this tends to be an important index.

Coming up this week …..traders will be looking at Motor Vehicle sales and consumer data!  Unemployment has been inching up so that report will  be looked at as well in anticipation of the Federal Reserve meeting on the 11th.

Have a great week!